Morning Call: Trade optimism with China lifts U.S. stocks; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +0.38%; Dec COMEX copper up +1.55% at a 1-week high.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini
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DXY0097.227-0.216-0.22%
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GCZ181,237.0s-5.7-0.46%
SIZ1814.513s-0.216-1.47%
HGZ182.7400-0.0205-0.74%
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ORCL46.60-0.63-1.33%
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NTAP61.43-1.30-2.07%
CSCO45.82-1.65-3.48%
AGNC18.02+0.15+0.84%
HSDT9.93-0.06-0.60%
VIPS5.31-0.32-5.68%
COTY7.31-0.29-3.82%
SORL2.72+0.01+0.37%
MARK1.56unchunch

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.38% on optimism the U.S.-China trade conflict will soon be resolved after a report said that China has outlined a series of potential trade concessions to the U.S. Two people familiar with the report said the Chinese offer was constructive ahead of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. A 1% gain in Walmart in pre-market trading is also giving stock indexes a boost after Walmart reported Q3 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel rose +3.4%, better than consensus of +2.9%. European stocks are down -0.10% and GBP/USD tumbled -1.23% to a 2-week low on increased UK political risks as several British cabinet ministers quit in protest of Prime Minister May's Brexit deal. This throws doubt into Prime Minister May's ability to secure Parliament support for her plan, and even for her to survive as leader as the UK could crash out of the EU with no deal in place. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.20%, Hong Kong +1.75%, China +1.36%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia +0.06%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea +0.99%, India +0.34%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high on reduced trade concerns after a report indicated China had outlined a series of trade concessions to the Trump administration. Losses in Japanese exporters led the Nikkei Stock Index lower after USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.34%) is up +0.34%%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD unch) is up +0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.13%) is down -0.14% at a 1-week low.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-040) are up +3.5 ticks at a 2-week high on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell along with carry-over support from a rally in UK Gilts on increased safe-haven demand from Brexit woes.

Fed Chair Powell said Wednesday night that "we have to be thinking about how much further to raise rates, and the pace at which we will raise rates."

Eurozone Oct new car registrations fell for a second month as they declined -7.3% y/y to 1.084 mln, although year-to-date new car registrations are up +1.6% y/y to 12.828 million.

China Oct new home prices rose +1.02% m/m with prices rising in 65 out of 70 cities versus 64 cities that prices rose in Sep.

UK Oct retail sales ex auto fuel unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m. weaker than expectations of +0.2%.

UK Oct retail sales including auto fuel fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 213,000, previous -1,000 to 214,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 1.625 million, previous -8,000 to 1.623 million), (2) Nov Empire manufacturing index (expected -1.1 to 20.0, Oct +2.1 to 21.1, (3) Philadelphia Fed Nov business outlook index (expected -2.2 to 20.0, Oct -0.7 to 22.20, (4) Oct retail sales (expected +0.5% and +0.5% ex autos, Sep +0.1% and -0.1% ex autos), (5) Oct import price index (expected +0.1% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Sep +0.5% m/m and +3.5% y/y), (6) Oct export price index (expected +0.1% m/m, Sep unch m/m and +2.7% y/y), (7) Oct industrial production (expected +0.2% m/m, Sep +0.3% m/m), (8) Sep business inventories (expected +0.3%, Aug +0.5%), (9) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (10) Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles appears before the Senate Banking Committee on banking supervision, (11) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) speaks at a GIC Central Banking conference in Madrid, Spain, and (12) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A with the Minnesota AgriGrowth Council.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Walmart (consensus $1.01), Applied Materials (0.97), Nordstrom (0.66), Williams-Sonoma (0.94), NVIDIA (1.92), Energizer Holdings (0.81).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Canaccord Genuity Medical Technologies and Diagnostics Forum on Thu, Deutsche Bank Lithium & Energy Storage Conference on Thu, Deutsche Bank Medtools & Diagnostics One-on-One Day on Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference on Fri.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.35%) this morning are up +10.25 points (+0.38%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.76%, Dow Jones -0.81%, Nasdaq 100 -0.89%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower on weakness in technology stocks led by a nearly 3% drop in Apple to a 4-month low. There were also renewed trade concerns after New Jersey Representative Pascrell, who is in line to chair the House Ways and Means Trade subcommittee, said the USMCA trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is dead and will not get Democratic votes unless President Trump renegotiates it. A positive factor was the +1.01% rally in crude oil prices, which boosted energy stocks.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-040) this morning are up +3.5 ticks at a fresh 2-week high. Wednesday's closes: TYZ8 +7.50, FVZ8 +5.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Wednesday rallied to a 2-week high and closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Oct core CPI report, which was dovish for Fed policy, and increased safe-haven demand with the sell-off in the S&P 500 to a 2-week low. T-notes were also supported by a decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate slumped to a 10-1/4 month low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.34%) this morning is up +0.329 (+0.34%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD unch) is up +0.0002 (+0.02%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.13%) is down -0.16 (-0.14%) at a 1-week low. Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.500 (-0.51%), EUR/USD +0.0020 (+0.18%), USD/JPY -0.18 (-0.16%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower on the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Oct core CPI (+2.1% y/y vs expectations of +2.2% y/y), which was dovish for Fed policy. The dollar was also undercut by the decline in T-note yields, which weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.02%) -0.2 (-0.02%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.07%) +0.015 (+0.11%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +1.49%) +0.042 (+1.55%) at a 1-week high. Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Wednesday closed up +$8.70 an ounce (+0.72%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed up +0.103 (+0.74%). Metals prices moved higher Wednesday on increased safe-haven demand after the S&P 500 tumbled to a 2-week low. A weaker dollar on Wednesday was also supportive for metals prices. Dec Comex silver rebounded from a 2-3/4 year nearest-futures low and moved higher after China Oct industrial production rose more than expected (+5.9% y/y vs. expectations of +5.8% y/y), which is positive for Chinese industrial metals demand. Silver prices also found support on fund buying after long silver positions held by ETFs rose to a 2-week high on Tuesday of 531.540 million troy ounces, rebounding from a 4-month low of 526.655 million troy ounces on Monday. Gains in gold were limited after U.S. Oct core CPI rose +2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.2% y/y, which reduces demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 -0.02%) this morning are up +12 cents (+0.21%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 -0.04%) is +0.0018 (+0.12%). Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Wednesday closed up +$0.56 (+1.01%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) closed up +$0.41 (+0.63%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed up +1.79 cents a gallon (+1.16%). A weaker dollar on Wednesday fueled some short-covering in the energy complex along with increased talk about OPEC+ production cuts in 2019. Reuters reported that that OPEC+ is considering a reduction in crude output by -1.4 million bpd in 2019, more than the -1.0 million bpd cut that was discussed over the weekend in Abu Dhabi. Crude oil prices plunged earlier this week on oversupply concerns and signs of weaker demand. OPEC in its monthly report Tuesday cut its 2019 global crude demand for OPEC crude to 31.5 million bpd, down 500,000 bpd from its forecast in Sep and about 1.4 million bpd below its current production level. Thursday's weekly EIA report is expected to show that U.S. oil inventories will climb +3.0 million bbl, the eighth consecutive weekly increase. U.S. crude oil inventories are currently 3.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, the highest such level since February.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

WalMart (WMT -1.37%) is up more than 1% in pre-market trading after it reported Q3 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel rose +3.4%, better than consensus of +2.9%.

Loxo Oncology (LOXO -9.84%) was rated a new 'Strong Buy' at Raymond James with a price target of $235.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM -2.06%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway added 35.7 million shares of JPM to its investments in Q3.

Visa (V -0.16%) was rated a new 'Overweight' at Barclays with a price target of $170.

Oracle (ORCL -1.35%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway added 41.4 million shares of ORCL to its investments in Q3.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN +1.23%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Bernstein with a price target of $166.

PNC Financial Services (PNC -1.08%) added 2% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway added 6.09 million shares of PNC to its investments in Q3.

NetApp (NTAP -1.09%) fell more than 5% in after-hours trading despite its forecast for Q3 net revenue of $1.55 billion to $1.65 billion, the midpoint right on consensus of $1.60 billion.

Cisco Systems (CSCO -1.75%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 revenue of $13.07 billion, above consensus of $12.87 billion, and then forecast Q2 revenue of 5% to 7%, the midpoint above consensus of 5.5%.

AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC -0.56%) fell more than 2% in after-hours trading after it announced that it plans to make a public offering of 40 million shares of its common stock,

Helius Medical Technologies (HSDT -5.13%) tumbled more than 8% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to sell $15 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd (VIPS +2.10%) climbed 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $2.60 billion, above consensus of $2.52 billion.

Coty (COTY +6.62%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $12.

SORL Auto Parts (SORL +1.87%) dropped 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 gross margin of 24.3% versus 26.9% y/y.

Remark Holdings (MARK -6.02%) plunged 42% in after-hours trading after it said it defaulted on an $11.5 million payment required by a financing agreement in late Sep.