Morning Call: Political risks from Italy and the UK weigh on stocks; Dec E-mini S&Ps down -0.18% at a 1-week low; Dec T-notes up +1.5 ticks at a 1-week high.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.01%) this morning are down -0.18% at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -0.57% at a 2-week low as Eurozone political risks weigh on stocks. GBP/USD is down -0.19% as UK Prime Minister May will ask her divided Cabinet ministers to back her Brexit deal or quit and Italy's 10-year government bond yield rose to a 2-1/2 week high of 3.56% after Italy's populist government refused to revise its budget for next year. The European Commission, who rejected a first draft of Italy's budget last month, must now decide if it will start a long and complex process that could lead to several billion euros in fines for Italy. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.16%, Hong Kong -0.54%, China -0.85%, Taiwan +0.16%, Australia -1.74%, Singapore -0.34%, South Korea -0.30%, India -0.01%. Japanese stocks moved higher on trade optimism on a report the Trump administration will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports while Chinese stocks moved lower on a mixed bag of economic data that showed China Oct retail sales rose less than expected but China Oct industrial production strengthened.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) is up +0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.08%) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.05%) is up +0.05%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-010) are up +1.5 ticks.

Eurozone Q3 GDP was left unrevised at +0.2% q/q and +1.7% y/y.

Eurozone Sep industrial production of -0.3% m/m and +0.9% y/y was stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m and +0.3% y/y.

German Q3 GDP of -0.2% q/q and +1.1% y/y was weaker than expectations of -0.1% q/q and +1.2% y/y.

UK Oct CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Oct core CPI rose +1.9% y/y, right on expectations.

Japan Q3 GDP fell -1.2% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of -1.0% (q/q annualized). The Q3 GDP deflator fell -0.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.1% y/y.

China Oct industrial production rose +5.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of 5.8% y/y.

China Oct retail sales rose +8.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +9.2% y/y.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -4.0% to 316.2 with purchase sub-index -5.0% to 213.6 and refi sub-index -2.5% to 861.8), (2) Oct CPI (expected +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y) and Oct CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +2.2% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +2.2% y/y), (3) Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles appears before the House Financial Services Committee on banking supervision, (4) Fed Chair Jerome Powell discusses national and global economic issues with Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (non-voter) at an event hosted by the Dallas Fed.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Macy's (consensus $0.14), Cisco Systems (0.72), NetApp (0.99).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: Centrexion Therapeutics (CNTX)

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: UBS Global Technology Conference on Mon-Wed, Chrome Dev Summit 2018 on Mon-Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals Conference on Tue-Wed, Stifel Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue-Wed, RBC Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi Financial Technology Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Health Care Conference on Tue-Wed, JP Morgan Energy Technology Tour on Tue-Wed, Jefferies Health Care Conference on Wed, National Multifamily Housing Council OPTECH Conference on Wed, William Blair Benefit Technology Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Wed-Thu, Barclays Global Automotive Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, Canaccord Genuity Medical Technologies and Diagnostics Forum on Thu, Deutsche Bank Lithium & Energy Storage Conference on Thu, Deutsche Bank Medtools & Diagnostics One-on-One Day on Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Future of Financials Conference on Fri.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.01%) this morning are down -5.00 points (-0.18%) at a 1-week low. Tuesday's closes: S&P 500 -0.15%, Dow Jones -0.40%, Nasdaq 100 +0.03%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed lower on weakness in technology stocks led by a -1% decline in Apple to a 3-1/4 month low on concern about weak global iPhone demand. There was also a continued slide in energy stocks after crude oil prices plunged -7.07% to a 10-3/4 month low. Stocks found some support on slightly reduced US/China trade tensions after White House economic adviser Kudlow said the U.S. and China are talking on "all levels" of government.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 +0-010) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Tuesday's closes: TYZ8 +4.00, FVZ8 +2.00. Dec 10-year T-notes on Tuesday closed higher on weakness in stocks that boosted safe-haven demand for T-notes, and on the slump in crude oil to a 10-3/4 month low, which undercut inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.04%) this morning is up +0.005 (+0.01%), EUR/USD (^EURUSD -0.08%) is down -0.0013 (-0.12%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.05%) is up +0.06 (+0.05%). Tuesday's closes: Dollar Index -0.239 (-0.25%), EUR/USD +0.0072 (+0.64%), USD/JPY -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed lower on strength in GBP/USD after Prime Minister May reached a separation agreement with the EU to present to her cabinet at a key meeting on Wednesday. EUR/USD found support on an unexpected increase in the German Nov ZEW survey expectations of economic growth.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.12%) -1.2 (-0.10%), Dec silver (SIZ18 -0.30%) -0.042 (-0.30%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +0.24%) +0.005 (+0.19%). Dec Comex gold (GCZ18) on Tuesday closed down -$2.10 an ounce (-0.17%) and Dec Comex silver (SIZ18) closed down -0.034 (-0.24%). Dec Comex gold dropped to a 1-month low Tuesday and Dec silver fell to a 2-month low on reduced safe-haven demand as global trade tensions eased a bit and stocks rallied. Stocks rallied after U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He resumed talks on trade and the South China Morning Post reported that Liu He is "expected" to visit Washington shortly. An early slump in crude oil prices to a 9-month low also undercut inflation expectations and undercut demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low. Fund selling in silver is negative for silver prices as long silver positions held by ETFs fell to a 4-month low of 526.655 million troy ounces on Monday. Losses in gold prices were limited as recent stock market volatility has boosted demand for gold as a protection of wealth as long gold positions in ETFs climbed to a 3-month high Monday of 2137.32 MT.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 +0.09%) this morning are up +9 cents (+0.16%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 +0.50%) is -0.06 (-0.04%). Dec WTI crude oil (CLZ18) on Tuesday closed with an extraordinarily steep loss of -$4.24 (-7.07%) per barrel and Jan Brent crude (CBF19) similarly closed down -$4.65 (-6.65%). Dec RBOB gasoline (RBZ18) closed down -9.40 cents a gallon (-5.74%). The energy complex sold off sharply Tuesday as Dec WTI crude oil slumped to a 10-3/4 month low, Jan Brent crude fell to a 7-month low, and Dec RBOB gasoline fell to a 13-month low on oversupply concerns and weak demand. Crude prices opened lower on carry-over weakness from President Trump's tweet late Monday that crude "should be much lower based on supply" and his explicit pressure on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to keep the oil spigot open and not cut production. Crude oil prices also saw continued weakness as Russia at the weekend OPEC+ meeting delayed a decision on whether it will support OPEC+ production cuts in 2019. Losses in crude then accelerated after OPEC in its monthly report cut its 2019 global crude demand for OPEC crude to 31.5 million bpd, down 500,000 bpd from its forecast in Sep and about 1.4 million bpd below its current production level. The outlook for increased crude supplies is also weighing on the energy complex as Thursday's weekly EIA report is expected to show that U.S. oil inventories will climb +3.0 million bbl, the eighth consecutive weekly increase. U.S. crude oil inventories are currently 3.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, the highest such level since February.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Edison International (EIX +3.70%) was downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Edqard Jones.

MercadoLibre (MELI +1.84%) was rated a new 'Buy' at BTIG LLC with a price target of $395.

Etsy (ETSY -6.63%) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it was rated a new 'Buy' at BTIG LLC with a price target of $59.

3M (MMM +0.67%) may move higher initially this morning after its board authorized the repurchase of up to $10 billion of the company's outstanding common stock.

Tilray (TLRY -1.67%) slid almost 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $10 million, below consensus of $10.1 million. Ltd (WIX +3.06%) dropped 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 premium subscribers rose +26% y/y, weaker than 28% growth in Q2 and slower than 29% growth in Q1.

CareDx (CDNA -7.41%) lost nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it announced that it intends to offer 2.0 million shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering.

PetIQ (PETQ -5.36%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it boosted its full-year sales outlook to about $515 million, higher than consensus of $502.3 million.

Cardlytics (CDLX -2.90%) dropped almost 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $34.6 million, weaker than consensus of $37.4 million, and then forecast Q4 revenue of $43 million to $45 million, below consensus of $49.1 million.

SVMK Inc (SVMK -1.83%) climbed more than 3% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year revenue of $251.2 million to $253.2 million, better than consensus of $249 million.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI +1.68%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q1 adjusted EPS of 18 cents to 22 cents, the midpoint above consensus of 19 cents.

Switch (SWCH -0.86%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted Ebitda of $197 million to $200 million, the midpoint below consensus of $198.8 million.

Amyris (AMRS +0.68%) plunged 29% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 GAAP revenue of $14.9 million, versus $24.2 million y/y.

Imprimis Pharmaceuticals (IMMY -10.23%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 gross margin expanded to 61% from 48% in the year-earlier period.